Long-term changes in the fish community structure from the Tsushima warm current region of the Japan/East Sea with an emphasis on the impacts of fishing and climate regime shift over the last four decades     

Yongjun Tian  Hideaki Kidokoro  Tatsuro Watanabe 《Progress in Oceanography》2006,68(2-4):217

Japanese fisheries production in the Japan/East Sea between 1958 and 2003 increased to their peak (1.76 million tons) in the late 1980s and decreased abruptly with the collapse of Japanese sardine. Catch results for 58 fisheries and various environmental time-series data sets and community indices, including mean trophic level (MTL) and Simpson’s diversity index (DI), were used to investigate the impacts of fishing and climate changes on the structure of the fish community in the Tsushima warm current (TWC) region of the Japan/East Sea. The long-term trend in fisheries production was largely dependent on the Japanese sardine that, as a single species, contributed up to 60% of the total production in the Japanese waters of the Japan/East Sea during the late 1980s. Excluding Japanese sardine, production of the small pelagic species was higher during 1960s and 1990s but lower during 1970s and 1980s. This variation pattern generally corresponds with the trend in water temperature, warmer before early 1960s and after 1990s but colder during 1970s and 1980s. The warm-water, large predatory fishes and cold water demersal species show opposite responses to the water temperature in the TWC region, indicating the significant impact of oceanic conditions on fisheries production of the Japan/East Sea. Declines in demersal fishes and invertebrates during 1970s and 1980s suggested some impact of fishing. MTL and DI show a similar variation pattern: higher during 1960s and 1990s but lower during 1970s and 1980s. In particular, the sharp decline during the 1980s resulted from the abundant sardine catches, suggesting that dominant species have a large effect on the structure of the fish community in the Japan/East Sea. Principal component analysis for 58 time-series data sets of fisheries catches suggested that the fish community varied on inter-annual to inter-decadal scales; the abrupt changes that occurred in the mid-1970s and late 1980s seemed to correspond closely with the climatic regime shifts in the North Pacific. These results strongly suggest that the structure of the fish community in the Japan/East Sea was largely affected by climatic and oceanic regime shifts rather than by fishing. There is no evidence showing “fishing down food webs” in the Japan/East Sea. However, in addition to the impacts of abrupt shifts that occurred in the late 1980s, the large predatory and demersal fishes seem to be facing stronger fishing pressure with the collapse of the Japanese sardine.  相似文献   

颗粒测量技术在悬沙测量中的应用与进展     

于连生 《海洋技术学报》2006,25(4):11-14

文中简述了当今悬沙测试技术的进展,提出了六个悬沙测试领域需要统一认识的基本问题,对悬沙测试技术的近期发展趋势作了简短的展望。  相似文献   

Modeling erosion of sedimentary coasts in the western Russian Arctic     

I. O. Leont'yev   《Coastal Engineering》2003,47(4):413-429

Morphodynamic modeling is employed in the present work to predict the long-term evolution (over the next 100 years) of typical sedimentary coasts in the western Russian Arctic. The studied objects are the coasts of Varandey (the Barents Sea), Baydaratskaya Bay and Harasavey (the Kara Sea). The model developed takes into account both the short-term processes (storm events) and long-term factors (for example, changes in sea level, inter-annual variations in gross sediment flux, lack or excess of sediment supply). Predicted and observed morphological changes in coastal profiles are shown to agree well for time scales ranging from weeks to decades. It is revealed that under given environmental conditions, the morphological evolution is strongly influenced by storm surges and associated wind-driven circulation. The water level gradient created by a surge generates a seaward flow at the bed. This outflow is shown to be an important destructive mechanism contributing to the erosion and recession of Arctic coasts. The rate of change is found to depend on both the exposure of the coast (relative to the direction of dominant winds) and its height above the sea. The open coast of Varandey is expected to retreat as much as 300–500 m over 100 years, while recession of the less exposed coasts of Baydaratskaya Bay would not exceed about 100 m/century. If long-term sediment losses are insignificant, the rate of erosion decays with time and the morphodynamic system may tend toward equilibrium. It is concluded that the expected relative sea-level rise (up to 1 m over the nearest 100 years) is non-crucial to the future coastal evolution if an erosion activity is already high enough.  相似文献   

Transfer-function modelling between environmental variation and mesozooplankton in the Baltic Sea     

I. Vuorinen  J. Hnninen  G. Kornilovs 《Progress in Oceanography》2003,59(4):339-356

Time series of freshwater runoff, seawater salinity, temperature and oxygen were used in transfer functions (TF) to model changes of mesozooplankton taxa in the Baltic Sea from the 1960’s to the 1990’s. The models were then compared with long term zooplankton monitoring data from the same period. The TF models for all taxa over the whole Baltic proper and at different depth layers showed statistically significant estimates in t-tests. TF models were further compared using parsimony as a criterion. We present models showing 1) r² > 0.4, 2) the smallest residual standard error with the combination of exploratory variables, 3) the lowest number of parameters and 4) the highest proportional decrease in error term when the TF model residual standard error was compared with those of the univariate ARIMA model of the same response variable. Most often (7 taxa out of a total of 8), zooplankton taxa were dependent on freshwater runoff and/or seawater salinity. Cladocerans and estuarine copepods were more conveniently modelled through the inclusion of seawater temperature and oxygen data as independent variables. Our modelling, however, explains neither the overall increase in zooplankton abundance nor a simultaneous decrease found in the neritic copepod, Temora longicornis. Therefore, biotic controlling agents (e.g. nutrients, primary production and planktivore diets) are suggested as independent variables for further TF modelling. TF modelling enabled us to put the controlling factors in a time frame. It was then possible, despite the inherent multiple correlation among parameters studied to deduce a chain-of-events from the environmental controls and biotic feedback mechanisms to changes in zooplankton species. We suggest that the documented long-term changes in zooplankton could have been driven by climatic regulation only. The control by climate could be mediated to zooplankton through marine chemical and physical factors, as well as biotic factors if all of these were responding to the same external control, such as changes in the freshwater runoff. Increased runoff would explain both the increasing eutrophication, causing the overall increase of zooplankton, and the changes in selective predation, contributing to decline of Temora.  相似文献   

Modelling and forecasting long-term dynamics of Western Baltic macrobenthic fauna in relation to climate signals and environmental change   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Joachim Grger  Heye Rumohr 《Journal of Sea Research》2006,55(4):266-277

Long-term macrobenthos data from Kiel Bight in the Western Baltic collected between 1968 and 2000 have been correlated with the winter NAO index (North Atlantic Oscillation Index) and other environmental data such as temperature, salinity and oxygen content in the bottom water in order to detect systematic patterns related to so far unexplained abiotic signals in the dynamics of zoobenthic species assemblages. The benthos data come from a cluster of five stations (Süderfahrt/ Millionenviertel) in Kiel Bay. Our investigations concentrated on the macrobenthic dynamics with a focus on the number of species m^− 2 (species richness). Using logarithms and the time series analysis approach of Box/Jenkins (ARIMA modelling, transfer function modelling) it was shown that species richness was strongly influenced by the winter NAO (adjusted for a linear time trend within the 1968-2000 period) and salinity (with a shift/lag of four years). Bootstrapping experiments (i.e. sampling from the error process) and analysis of prediction power (by means of the one- or more-years leaving-out method) showed that the parameter estimates behaved in a stable way, leading to a relatively robust model.  相似文献   

On the long-term response of marine structures     

L.V.S. Sagrilo  A. NaessA.S. Doria 《Applied Ocean Research》2011,33(3):208-214

This paper addresses some important issues related to the estimation of long-term extreme responses of marine structures. Several convolution models to establish the long-term distribution of a marine structure response parameter are available in the literature. These methods are typically based either on all short-term peaks, all extreme short-term peaks or all short-term upcrossing rates. The main assumptions and simplifications of the five models most usually found in the literature are discussed in this paper. A linear single-degree-of-freedom (SDOF) system along with a bi-lognormal probability model for significant wave heights and zero-crossing wave periods have been used for numerical tests. An improved approach to efficiently evaluate the long-term convolution integrals is also proposed in this paper. It is shown that a combination of the Inverse First Order Reliability Method (IFORM) and an Importance Sampling Monte Carlo Simulation (ISMCS) approach can be used to obtain a very good result for the exact solution of long-term integrals.  相似文献   

Research on the spectral analysis and test method of period signals in monthly mean sea level     

Ma Jirui  Tian Suzhen  Zheng Wenzhen  Chai Xinmin 《海洋学报(英文版)》1995,14(2):181-190

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Relative abundance, age, growth, and fecundity of grubby Myoxocephalus aenaeus in Niantic River and Niantic Bay, Long Island Sound     

Edward F. Roseman  Christine A. Tomichek  Tracy Maynard  Jennifer A. Burton 《Journal of Sea Research》2005,53(4):309-318

Grubby (Myoxocephalus aenaeus, Cottidae) is a common benthic fish of inshore waters and estuaries of eastern Long Island Sound; however, little information exists on their life history or population demographics. This study utilised a long-term data series (1976–2002) to assess grubby life history and population demographics and explores trends in the Niantic River and Niantic Bay populations. In addition, we examined the age, size, and fecundity of adult grubby in 2001–02 to determine the population characteristics in the region. Mean grubby catch per unit effort (CPUE) in Niantic Bay ranged from 0.4 per trawl in 1976 to 2.9 per trawl in 1984 while river CPUE ranged from 0.4 per trawl in 1977 to 7.6 per trawl in 1989. Catch of grubby in bottom trawls varied seasonally with highest CPUE occurring in winter. Highest entrainment of grubby larvae occurred in 2001 while the lowest entrainment observed was in 1991. Four age classes, 0+ through III+, were derived from otolith analysis (N = 51) although length frequency analysis suggested the possibility of older fish in the population. The total number of eggs in ovaries ranged from 286 to 16 451 for grubby (N = 64) between 52 mm and 155 mm TL. Results of this study indicated a decline in abundance of adult grubby over the 26-year period, possibly related to concurrent declines in eelgrass (Zostera marina) abundance and/or increased water temperature.  相似文献   

珠江三角洲网河区水位变化趋势研究   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  

沈焕庭  杨清书  罗宪林  罗章仁  杨干然  欧素英 《海洋学报》2002,24(2):30-38

根据珠江三角洲网河区29个验潮站的实测验潮记录,应用傅氏变换与最平滤波器串联的方法来消除月均序列的周期波动对确定水位变化趋势的影响,由低通序列一元线性回归分析确定各站水位的变化趋势;结果表明,周期波动对确定海平面变化趋势的影响是显著的.应用经验正交函数(EOF)对网河区的水位变化场进行分解,由相互独立的时间函数和空间特征函数表征网河区区域的水位变化特征;应用时间特征函数计算区域水位的平均变化率为0.02mm/a.根据验潮站的水位变化趋势,探讨网河区水位变化与河床冲淤的关系.  相似文献   

基于标准化降水指数的内蒙古地区干旱时空变化特征   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

李虹雨  马龙  刘廷玺  梁珑腾 《水文》2018,38(5):47-51

利用内蒙古及周边地区70个气象站1951~2014年降水数据,采用标准化降水指数等方法,对内蒙古近64年气候干旱时空变化进行分析。结果表明:研究区近64年来除西部年际、春、秋、冬季,中部春、秋季及东部春、冬季气候趋于湿润外,其他均趋于干旱。中、东部年际、植(作)物生长期SPI在2001年和1990年左右发生突变,东部突变后趋于干旱并在2006年左右又发生明显转折后趋于湿润。西部在1960s干旱严重,中、东部在1990s至2000s干旱严重。西部年际SPI由西北向东南、东部由南向北干旱趋势速率呈阶梯状下降,中部干旱趋势速率较西、东部快;植(作)物生长期SPI空间变化与年际一致,但西、中部干旱趋势明显的区域有所扩大。  相似文献